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Young Voters May Hold The Key To Victory In Iowa

A "Beers for Bernie" event at Brothers Bar & Grill in Iowa City, Iowa. Patrons, many of whom are college students at the nearby University of Iowa, are encouraged to sign a pledge promising to caucus for Sen. Bernie Sanders on Feb. 1.
Peter Hirschfeld
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VPR
A "Beers for Bernie" event at Brothers Bar & Grill in Iowa City, Iowa. Patrons, many of whom are college students at the nearby University of Iowa, are encouraged to sign a pledge promising to caucus for Sen. Bernie Sanders on Feb. 1.

Earlier this month, no less an authority than TeenVogue declared that Bernie Sanders is “killin' it” with millennials.

And polls have consistently shown him with a sizeable lead over Hillary Clinton among younger Democrats. In Iowa, young caucus-goers will be instrumental to a Sanders win — or defeat — in the nation's first presidential contest. 

In the Hawkeye State, many young caucus-goers are feeling the Bern while others are backing Clinton, but both candidates are vying for the shrinking pool of undecided Democrats before caucus night on Feb. 1. On a Thursday night in Iowa City, Brothers Bar and Grill is busy with local college students who are here for an event dubbed "Beers for Bernie."    

Right inside the entrance is a folding table, stacked with all kinds of Bernie-branded campaign material. During the school year, the 30,000 students here account for a third of Iowa City's population. 

Grant Bender, a 21-year-old business major at the University of Iowa, takes a seat at the long, wooden bar and orders a $3 Miller Lite bottle.

He just signed a pledge to caucus for Sanders on Feb. 1. He says Sanders' contempt for money in politics, tirades against income inequality, and vows to break up big banks have won him over.

"I just kind of feel like it is a rigged economy," Bender says. "And most other politicians that are funded by Super PACs, or whatever other money interests they have, lobbyists that they deal with. I just feel like Bernie is the only one that sticks out and will change politics as usual for the better."    

Bender says the 74-year-old senator from Vermont has hit a chord with young voters in Iowa. And there's plenty of evidence to support his view. Numerous polls have shown Sanders with double-digit leads in Iowa among voters 45 and younger.

And of the 15,000 people that have put in at least one volunteer shift for Sanders in Iowa, nearly 60 percent are under the age of 34, according to the New York Times.      

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addressing the crowd at a campaign event in Iowa City, Iowa on Thursday night.
Credit Taylor Dobbs / VPR
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VPR
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addressing the crowd at a campaign event in Iowa City, Iowa on Thursday night.

A few blocks away from the Sanders supporters at Brothers Bar and Grill, a crowd is filling a ballroom on the University of Iowa campus. Morgan Mitchell is from Clinton, Iowa, and Hillary Clinton is her candidate.

"She's very for gender and women equality, and I'm down for that," Mitchell says. "And I really like that she's really open and willing to see things from an open-minded view."    

But she says she doesn't necessarily think Sanders would set women back if he were president. 

"I just think Hillary has more of a focus on it," Mitchell explains. "And I really enjoy that because, although women technically have equal rights, we're viewed differently in society. And Bernie wants equal pay, but he's not really thinking about the women and children and families, you know."

TeenVogue may say that Sanders is "killin' it" with young voters, but but the Clinton campaign has its own millennial star power; a few blocks away, Clinton is holding a rally on campus featuring 23-year-old pop star Demi Lovato.  

Clinton will take the stage for just a few minutes tonight. But first, Lovato warms up the room with a few songs. The crowd, thick with college kids — eats it up.     

Pop star Demi Lovato performing at a Hillary Clinton campaign event in Iowa City, Iowa Thursday. The pop star performed for about 16 minutes, while the candidate spoke for just over five minutes.
Credit Taylor Dobbs / VPR
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VPR
Pop star Demi Lovato performing at a Hillary Clinton campaign event in Iowa City, Iowa Thursday. The pop star performed for about 16 minutes, while the candidate spoke for just over five minutes.

But savvy Iowans know that the caucuses aren't won with star power, but rather retail politics.   

"I am here to work for Bernie," says Isabelle Story. "That's why I took this year off."   

Story grew up in Iowa City, and she's taking a break from Carleton College in Minnesota. She says two issues in particular drive her activism for Sanders:  

"Equal pay for women, paid maternity leave," Story explains. "As a young woman, who's about to graduate and trying to figure out what she wants to do with her life, that really resonates with me."  

For many other students here, it is Sanders plan to ensure free college tuition at public universities that seals the deal.   

Ann Selzer is a public opinion researcher based in West Des Moines, Iowa. She says Sanders is outpacing his Democratic rival among younger voters here, even in demographics where Clinton has shown particular strength.   

"One thing we know is that Bernie Sanders does well with younger people. Hillary Clinton does better with women," Selzer says. "And I was asked, which is the stronger influence? So we took a look at young women, older women, young men and older men, and it turns out, youth is the stronger pull. Hillary Clinton does not win with younger women; Bernie Sanders wins with younger women." 

And that seems to hold true for Victoria Hansen.  

“Actually, my heart's been set on Bernie," Hansen says. 

Hansen was at the Hillary Clinton rally in Iowa City, but a few days later we saw her at a Sanders event in her hometown of Clinton, Iowa. She sat near the back of the crowded room, with her infant on her lap. She likes Hillary Clinton's work for gender equality, but she thinks Sanders is good on that front too. Plus, Sanders has other draws.  

“The free tuition. That is one of the main things," says Hansen. "I ended up dropping out of school because I got pregnant. I did go for one semester of college. I only owe $2,000, but with what I want to do, I'd end up owing a lot more."

Victoria Hansen holds her daughter Ariella in her lap while listening to Sen. Bernie Sanders at a campaign event in Clinton, Iowa Saturday. Hansen says her "heart's been set on Bernie."
Credit Taylor Dobbs / VPR
/
VPR
Victoria Hansen holds her daughter Ariella in her lap while listening to Sen. Bernie Sanders at a campaign event in Clinton, Iowa Saturday. Hansen says her "heart's been set on Bernie."

Hansen says she wants to become a social worker. 

"It's not fair to the people that want to get an education, that they have to pay for it," she says. "That's like paying to get a job, to me."  

Clinton has campaigned on her detailed policy proposals, including college tuition. But for Victoria Hansen, Clinton's celebrity appearance with Demi Lavato wasn't enough.

“I was a little disappointed to be honest," says Hansen. "Not in Demi, but in Hillary for only being up there for about 10 minutes or so and not really addressing anything other than 'hey, come caucus for me.' That's really the only thing I heard her say."   

Young Iowans like Hansen show up in the polls as leaning heavily to Sanders.   

But will that make the difference on caucus night? Pollster Ann Selzer says, it depends on how the two campaigns respond. Selzer says Clinton needs to both win over more young women and make sure their older counterparts show up to caucus

VPR’s coverage of the 2016 presidential campaign is made possible in part by the VPR Journalism Fund.

Copyright 2016 Vermont Public Radio

Peter Hirschfeld covers state government and the Vermont Legislature. He is based in VPR’s Capital Bureau located across the street from Vermont’s Statehouse.
Taylor was VPR's digital reporter from 2013 until 2017. After growing up in Vermont, he graduated with at BA in Journalism from Northeastern University in 2013.

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