The CPBN Media Lab has taken an interest in this year’s political campaigns. Today, we looked at the primary results, and looked for different trends. Linda McMahon won the statewide election with 73% of the vote, but how did she fare in her hometown of Greenwich? Did Chris Shaysget enough support from his neighbors to win in Bridgeport? On the Democratic side, did Susan Bysiewicz or Chris Murphy get a boost in their communities? Is there such a thing as home field advantage in politics?
Linda McMahon won in both her hometown, and in Chris Shays’. The results were similar; McMahon received 57% of the vote in her community of Greenwich, compared to Shay’s 43%. She also had 56% in Bridgeport, while Shays only had 44% in his own town.
Both Democratic candidates won their hometown. Murphy received 81% of the support in his town of Cheshire, while Byseiwicz had 19%. In her native Middletown, Byseiwicz saw her support jump to 54%, 8 points ahead of Murphy’s 46%.
So far, there is little proof that there is a homefield advantage in politics. For another perspective, we looked at the 2012 GOP primaries in four states. Newt Gingrich won in his home state of Georgia, receiving 47% of the vote. Mitt Romney, the runner up, only had 26%. Romney faired much better in his state of Massachusetts; here, he garnered 72%. Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum combined for only 27% in the Bay state.
Neither Paul nor Santorum were able to win in their home states. Paul received only 12%, and finished 57 percentage points behind the winner, Mitt Romney. Santorum garnered a mere 19% of the vote in Pennsylvania. In comparison, Romney had 58%.
Taking our research to the next level, we explored primaries in years past. In 2008, the Republican presidential candidates won their home state three out of five times, or 60%.This figure went down to 50% this year. Two of the three senatorial candidates in 2010 won their hometown, and all three gubernatorial candidates accomplished the same feat.
The most interesting discovery came in our research of the Democratic party. In 2008, both Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton won their home states. In 2010, Dan Malloy and Ned Lamont each claimed victory in their hometowns. In addition to this years senatorial primaries, the Democratic candidates won their home region 100% of the time.
Based on these findings, the Democrats have a distinct home field advantage in their primaries. The Republicans only win in their home communities 65% of the time. This research was focused only on presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial primaries, and only for the past four years. Further research may yield different results.
